2020 new crop China apple output would dropped approximately 20%-30% than last year because of more and stronger windy rainy days this year.
expect that the apple output drop would hardly push up dried apples price,
because firstly COVID-19 hit dried apples sale at the first half of 2020 and
there are still a number of old crop dried apples available on market; secondly
2020 weak worldwide economic decrease dried apples demand, which could not
support price up. Dried apple price kept decreasing slowly from the first half of 2020 and reached to the bottom and became stable in Aug.
Would dried apples price go down because of weak economic and demand in future? Panda Foods do not think so, because of two 3 reasons:
Firstly COVID-19 hit dried apple sales and made dried apple price went down a lot at the first half of 2020, latest dried apple price is the almost the lowest for past 5 years and very close to planting and producing cost. There are not any more room to drop on price.
Secondly, the worldwide demand of dried apples did not decrease much. According to Chinese customs export data, Chinese dried apples export quantity dropped only approximatly 30% from Jan. to Aug. comparing with last year. Since the end of Aug. and early Sep., 2020, we got a lot of inquires and firm orders on dried apples, which is more than last year, and it seems like the depressed demand at the first half of 2020 came in short, concentrated burst in Sep.,2020
Thirdly, Freight and RMB exchange against USD keep increasing, which push up dried apple price. COVID-19 hit shipping line, a lot of vessel stopped, so the freight is increasing. Especially the freight from China port to South American port increased 200-300% from Sep.1 to Sep.16, which is cracy.
In a word, we expect dried apple price is stable in China but the offer to foreign buyers would be increasing slowly, not becausing of increasing demand but because of increasing freight and RMB exchange.
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